Canada Multifamily Market Tells Two Stories

Canada’s multifamily vacancy rate sits near ~5% currently, but national numbers hide a split market: affordable units remain tight while higher-end supply is much looser.
Current vacancy is ~3% for lower-priced units versus ~15% for higher-end units, reinforcing that availability differs sharply depending on where renters land on price.
A new forecast expects absorption to start rising in Late-Q4 2026, one quarter earlier than previously expected, helped by pent-up demand and declining rent.
Improving absorption and a moderating pace of new deliveries are expected to push Canada’s multifamily vacancy trend downward in the second half of 2027.
Key watchpoints remain trade and tariff uncertainty, higher fuel costs, population decline, and future immigration targets, all factors that could shape absorption timing.